国际货币基金组织：即将到来的大萧条？新指标与百年证据（英文版）

Governments have historically used financial repression to reduce debt and fiscal pressures, yet few systematic measures of repression exist. To fill this gap, we introduce two quantity-based repression indicators grounded in a structural portfolio-choice model, exploiting the gap in government-bond demand between captive and non-captive investors. A narrow fiscal indicator captures pressure on banks to hold government bonds. A consolidated measure adds the perimeter of central bank liabiliti