国际货币基金组织：2026年世界经济展望报告-战争阴影下的全球经济（4月版）（英文版）

The duration and scale of the conflict and the time it will take for energy production and transit to normalize after the end of hostilities will determine the ultimate size of the shock to the global economy. The overall impact of the shock depends on three channels. First, the direct effect of commodity price increases represents a textbook negative supply shock, raising the cost of all energy-intensive goods and services—including fertilizers, chemicals, food, transportation, and heating—d