AMRO：全球银行违约周期：国家间的暴露和商业周期的影响（英文版）

This paper studies a global banking-sector default cycle constructed from firm-level probabilities of default across a broad set of countries and evaluates its macro-financial implications. Using a dynamic factor model, we extract a dominant global component in bank default risk and document substantial cross-country heterogeneity in exposure. We then analyze its association with credit and real economic outcomes. The evidence shows that increases in global banking-sector default risk tend to