法国兴业银行：2026年全球经济展望报告（英文版）

◼ The Middle East war shock is, for now, more inflationary than recessionary, with the effects pushing back on central bank easing. Global growth appears resilient, but not immune. The longer the war lasts, the more the story is likely to shift from demand resilience to supply constraints. ◼ AI is still set to be the main source of support for global growth in 2026, boosting investment and trade across major economies, even if the productivity pay-off remains uncertain. We think fears of