国际货币基金组织：在碎片化的世界中解锁中东和北非和CCA贸易（英文版）

This paper investigates the impact of geoeconomic fragmentation on trade flows in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions. Amidst ongoing conflicts, security threats, the spike in global economic uncertainty, and evolving consumer sentiments, these regions face intricate challenges that necessitate agile policy responses. The analysis presents three illustrative scenarios, examining the effects of targeted trade restrictions, trade diversion, and ne