国际清算银行：评估2025年美国关税对宏观经济的影响（英文版）

This paper develops a multi-country, multi-sector trade model with input-output linkages to analyze the global macroeconomic effects of the United States’(US) 2025 tariff policies. The model incorporates endogenous labor supply and captures the transmission of tariff-induced shocks through global value chains (GVCs). By simulating both short-run and long-run adjustments, the analysis demonstrates how trade shocks are amplified by sectoral interdependence and labor market dynamics. The results