欧洲央行：稀土出口管制的全球影响：基于模型的评估（英文版）

In April and in October 2025 China imposed export controls on rare earths amid escalating trade tensions with the United States. Although these measures were too short-lived to generate macroeconomic effects, they signalled China’s ability to draw on its dominant position in the rare earth supply chain. This paper provides a structured assessment of the potential macroeconomic consequences associated with rare earth supply disruptions. First, it documents that exposure to rare earth supply di