国际货币基金组织：碎片化世界中的东盟贸易与投资（英文版）

: This paper examines the short- and medium-term effects of the 2018–19 China-U.S. tariff increases on the trade and investment flows of ASEAN member economies. Using granular trade data, we demonstrate that several ASEAN countries experienced a disproportionate growth in exports of products that were targeted by these tariffs. To further explore the dynamic and often immediate responses of international capital flows to these trade policy shifts, we leverage a novel firm-level FDI database t