非洲经济研究中心：南非消费、房价、抵押贷款和非抵押贷款债务的新模式（英文版）

Aggregate consumption typically exceeds 60 per cent of GDP and should be pivotal in central bank policy models. Most use semi-structural macro-models, yet consumption is usually inadequately specified. We use a systems approach to estimate new equations for South African consumption, house prices, mortgage and non-mortgage debt, and income forecasting. A credit-augmented consumption function approach introduces a greater role for uncertainty and a key role for credit conditions, and varies th