国际货币基金组织：从产品级出口篮子的角度理解中国2024-25年的前沿（英文版）

A striking feature of US-China trade tensions in mid-2025 is China’s acceleration of exports to the US ahead of new tariff increases, a phenomenon we term export frontloading. To understand how this was achieved, we develop a factor model analytical framework to characterize China’s product-level exports, across time and destinations, according to a set of latent export baskets. Applying this to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, we document the channels behind the 2024-25 e