欧洲央行：贸易战对第三国的影响（英文版）

We study how trade wars propagate to countries that are not directly targeted. We develop a three-country New Keynesian model with trade in final and intermediate goods, incomplete asset markets, and asymmetric monetary regimes, and quantify the spillovers of the 2025 U.S.- China tariff escalation to the euro area. A bilateral U.S.-China trade war generates large and asymmetric welfare losses for the U.S. and China, while the euro area benefits temporarily from trade diversion. Once tariffs e