高盛：2026年投资展望报告：在复杂环境中捕捉新契机（英文版）

We believe the labor market holds the key to the pace and scale of Fed easing into2026, so long as inflation remains anchored. lf labor market weakness persists, driven byimmigration restrictions, federal layofs, and labor-saving Al, additional Fed rate cuts mayfollkow, especially if tariff-induced inflation is short-lived, we expect the ECB to maintain its296 rate, given at-target inflation and German fiscal expansion, though we do not rule outa return to rate cuts if inflation begins to mod