欧洲央行：主观收入与就业动态（英文版）

We develop a new approach to estimating earnings, job, and employment dy-namics using subjective expectations data from the NY Fed Survey of ConsumerExpectations. These data provide beliefs about future earnings offers and accep-tance probabilities, offering direct information on counterfactual outcomes and en-abling identification under weaker assumptions. Our framework avoids biases fromselection and unobserved heterogeneity that affect models using realized outcomes.First-step fixed-effect