碎片化悖论：降低贸易风险与全球安全（英文版）

We develop a model embedding a diplomatic game within a quantitative model of trade. Bilateral disputes arise exogenously, and rival countries engage in negotiations (which may fail) to avoid war. All welfare-relevant geoeconomic factors, such as the realized costs of war, the concessions to prevent it, and the probability of escalation, depend on the opportunity cost of war, itself shaped by observed trade flows. We show how to estimate these costs in a calibrated model of trade applying it