未来能源研究所：重型汽车尾气氮氧化物排放标准回顾性分析（英文版）

This paper presents a retrospective analysis of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2007 regulations targeting NOx emissions from heavy-duty vehicles. We replicate EPA’s on-road emissions model and compare the assumptions used in its analysis—vehicle sales, scrappage rates, NOx emission rates, and vehicle use—with actual outcomes in 2022. This comparison evaluates the accuracy of EPA’s assumptions and their long-term impact on NOx reduction estimates, providing a basis to assess the acc