美联储：轶事重要吗？通过文本分析探索1970年至2025年的褐皮书（英文版）

We apply various natural language processing tools to see if the Beige Book is helpful in understanding economic activity. The Beige Book is a gathering of anecdotal compilations of current economic conditions from each Federal Reserve Bank, which is released to the public prior to FOMC meetings. We find that even controlling for lagged GDP growth and other metrics, the Beige Book sentiment provides meaningful explanatory power in nowcasting GDP growth and forecasting recessions, even more so