国际货币基金组织：高加索和中亚的信贷扩张报告（英文版）

This paper analyzes credit developments in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) using several complementary approaches. First, it estimates long-run equilibrium credit levels based on economic fundamentals, providing benchmarks to assess whether observed credit levels are broadly aligned with country characteristics. Second, it applies statistical “gap” measures to identify periods of unusually rapid credit expansion that may signal emerging financial vulnerabilities. Third, it uses the Kalman