AMRO：高不确定性下的货币政策：等待的期权价值（英文版）

We embed the option value of waiting into a standard monetary policy framework to analyze optimal monetary policy under disturbance uncertainty. Under high uncertainty, especially when shocks are assessed to be transitory or carry high trade-offs, there is an option value of waiting. We derive a threshold rule that formalizes this trade-off, determining when the benefits of acting outweigh the option value of waiting for more information. If shocks are assessed to be persistent, there is a ca