安联Allianz：2026-27年全球破产展望报告-不要看低！（英文版）

Trade rerouting and (energy) deflation have prevented tariffs from unleashing the wave of corporate insolvencies many feared. Since early 2025, the Trump administration’s sweeping import duties (11% effective rate in August; 14% likely by year-end) have reshaped global trade flows without triggering a surge in US insolvencies. Large firms were cushioned by foreign exporters’ price moderation and the widespread rerouting of goods through third countries such as India and Vietnam, which kept co