美联储：多花钱少买：2025年关税和美国家庭支出（英文版）

This paper estimates the effects of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on household spending using transaction-level data linked to tariff exposure and a tariff sentiment survey. Comparing high versus low tariff-exposed categories, we find 15 to 20 percent price pass-through. At the mean increase in tariff exposure, prices rise by 1 to 2 percent while spending falls by roughly 4 percent. Survey evidence linking stated intentions to revealed behavior identifies a mechanism for the large spending response: