麦肯锡：2026年地缘政治与全球贸易格局更新报告-关税冲击、人工智能浪潮及重塑全球贸易的涟漪效应（英文版）

Trade in 2025 did not retrench, despite dire predictions. Both US imports and Chinese exports reached new highs. Southeast Asia deepened its role in global manufacturing, India gained ground in selected sectors, and Brazil expanded commodity exports to China. All told, trade grew faster than the global economy, while advanced economies and China reoriented away from geopolitically distant trading partners. — AI-related trade emerged as the most substantial engine of growth. Exports of se