国际货币基金组织：选举的重要性：资本流动与政治周期（英文版）

This paper contributes to the relatively limited literature on the impact of political uncertainty on international capital flows to emerging market economies. We incorporate elections as a proxy for political uncertainty into a standard push-pull framework for analyzing capital flows. Using quarterly data for a panel of 38 emerging market economies from 1990 to 2020, we show that periods surrounding elections are associated with a decline in gross private capital inflows. This adverse impact