国际货币基金组织：现在预测世界贸易的多区域因子模型（英文版）

This paper presents a nowcasting model for global trade that allows for regional dynamics and spillovers. World trade growth is driven by common global factors but also regional trends. While existing trade nowcasting models have focused on the former, we allow for the latter using a dynamic factor model (DFM) with a multi-factor block structure. By directly modeling global trends, regional variation and spillovers, we improve on the performance of standard trade nowcasting models, particularly