安联Allianz：2025-2027年全球经济展望报告：10大核心关切问题解析（英文版）

1. Who truly bears the cost of the ongoing trade war? Primarily exporters for now, but US consumers will also be hit through higher inflation (up by 0.6pp by mid-2026). While global trade routes have shifted, allowing exporters to mitigate the impact, downside risks remain high as sectorial investigations are ongoing and the trade deal with China is still pending. Export losses could in theory range from -0.3% of GDP (EU) to -1.3% of GDP (Vietnam) compared to a pre-trade war scenario. The cos