BCG：2026年全球贸易报告 （英文版）

It’s impossible to predict what the global landscape will look like a decade from now. But BCG has identified four possible scenarios. (See Exhibit 1.) On one extreme, the new era could evolve into one defined by self-sufficiency, as isolationism and protectionism escalate, leading to a collapse of the trade system as we’ve known it. On the other end of the spectrum, the world could gravitate toward the old status quo of rules-based trade, where tariffs stabilize, tensions ease, and ru