国际货币基金组织：传统计量经济学模型与机器学习算法的GDP预测性能：模拟和案例研究（英文版）

Are Machine Learning (ML) algorithms superior to traditional econometric models for GDP nowcasting in a time series setting? Based on our evaluation of all models from both classes ever used in nowcasting across simulation and six country cases, traditional econometric models tend to outperform ML algorithms. Among the ML algorithms, linear ML algorithm – Lasso and Elastic Net – perform best in nowcasting, even surpassing traditional econometric models in cases of long GDP data and rich high-