纽约联储：美联储不说话时利率意外（英文版）

The predictability of monetary policy surprises based on past, public information has been interpreted in two related yet fundamentally different ways. The “Fed information effect” posits that it arises due to markets updating their view of the economy, based on signals implicitly revealed by the FOMC. The “Fed reaction to news” explanation posits that markets update their view of the FOMC’s reaction function instead. We show that interest rate surprises calculated around macroeconomic releas