OECD经合组织：探索2030年可能的人工智能轨迹（英文版）

Artificial intelligence (AI) has advanced rapidly in recent years, with systems becoming increasingly capable. This paper presents expert- and evidence-informed scenarios for how AI could progress by 2030. It considers recent trends in AI and key uncertainties for AI progress through 2030. Current evidence suggests that four different broad scenario classes are all plausible through to 2030: progress stalling, progress slowing, progress continuing, and progress accelerating. This suggests tha