国际清算银行：天气灾害的宏观经济影响：全球和部门分析（英文版）

Whether and how extreme weather shocks transmit to economic activity and, in turn, inflation is key for monetary policy. We look at the macroeconomic effects of different types of weather disaster for up to 151 countries over 2000-24. We study their macro-level and sectoral effects on GDP growth and on relevant sub-components of inflation. Using local projections, we find that the negative effects on GDP can be quite sizable and long-lived: -2%, -1% and -0.4% after the average-size droughts,