William Blair：2026年经济周评：厄尔尼诺现象，下一次供应冲击？（英文版）

When it comes to inflation, one-off supply-side price shocks typically do not amount to much in the way of a second-round inflationary threat; hence, the proper response from monetary policymakers in developed market economies is to look through them. Yet, the problem we are seeing today is that the economy continues to be hit with one supply shock after another (COVID, the Russia-Ukraine war, tariffs, immigration restrictions, boats stuck in canals or hitting bridges, and the war with Iran),