国际货币基金组织：贸易政策冲击与企业估值-梳清贸易和不确定性渠道（英文版）

This paper investigates how the 2025 U.S. trade-policy shocks propagated to global equity valuations. Country-level studies have documented the aggregate costs of tariffs and uncertainty, but firm-level evidence on their joint role after the 2025 shocks remains limited. Filling this gap, we use a firm-level event-study design to disentangle a trade-exposure channel from a sensitivity-to-uncertainty channel. Firms with greater U.S. trade exposure and higher uncertainty sensitivity experienced