Rand兰德：2025年欧洲与AGI的地缘政治：制定备灾计划的必要性报告（英文版）

It adopts a working definition of AGI as AI systems that match or exceed humans at most economically useful cognitive work. On this definition, empirical trends and expert judgement suggest that it is plausible that AGI could emerge between 2030 and 2040 or even earlier, though uncertainty remains substantial. The emergence of such systems could reshape economic growth, military capabilities and international stability, while intensifying competitive and coercive dynamics among nations. Yet