Milliman：2025年欧洲的下一个突发洪水会在哪里？利用极端值理论量化欧洲极端降水和突发洪水风险白皮书（英文版）

Europe has witnessed a sharp uptick in catastrophic flash flood losses, punctuated by record-breaking downpours such as those in Valencia in 2024 and Western Europe in 2021. The amounts of rainfall experienced were higher than anticipated. This raises the question: In which European regions are similar events most likely to occur? We have applied EVT to rainfall data over a wide range of European weather stations to derive precipitation levels for different return periods based on what statis