密歇根大学LSA：2025-2026年美国经济展望报告（英文版）

As the Fed proceeds with its cutting cycle amid a cooling labor market, we expect real GDP to grow at an annualized pace of 2.3 percent and the unemployment rate to average 4.2 percent in 2024Q4. We project a modest deceleration of economic growth to accompany the less dynamic labor market over the near term. However, the solid momentum of real final sales to private domestic purchasers, helped by growth in real income, is likely to persist, supporting solid real GDP growth. As the stimulativ