William Blair：2026年经济学周报：美元-从这里开始哪里？（英文版）

At the start of each year, there is often a strong consensus narrative around the expected behavior of the U.S. dollar. At the start of 2025, the consensus was that the dollar would suffer on the back of the introduction of tariffs and, in our view, a Trump administration that seemed to regard the Nixon administration’s 1971 dollar shock as the desired playbook for gaining a competitive edge in global trade. In this case, the dollar did end up declining by 13% from its peak at the start of Ja