安联Allianz：2026年全球贸易调查报告（英文版）

Early signs of disruption. The Middle East conflict has added a new layer of shocks to an already fragile environment shaped by tariffs, weakening demand and declining consumer confidence. We expect lower global GDP growth (+2.6% in 2026), higher global inflation (4.3% in 2026) and stronger fiscal pressure, with higher energy and input costs and weak demand adding to the pressure of 10.5% effective US tariffs on companies’ margins. Even in the best-case scenario, a post-ceasefire recovery in