英国国家经济和社会研究所：2024季度定期保费跟踪-债券市场对夏季选举的反应报告（英文版）

The adjustment in the UK risk premium is consistent with a low growth-high inflation scenario as the result of the war. Based on our latest GDP growth tracker, April’s headline 0.3 per cent fall in GDP appears to be principally driven by the winding-down of some of the pandemic-related measures, such as the Test and Trace programme, which had made significant positive contributions to GDP over most of the Covid-19 period. The risk premium increased from -0.2 in mid-March to 0.25 by the beginn