三菱日联银行（MUFG）：2026年第二季度全球经济展望报告（英文版）

The rise in commodity prices and supply constraints triggered by the situation in the Middle East has led to growing concerns of a global economic slowdown. Our base case is that the conflict in the Middle East will ease in the near term, that oil supply will start to recover and oil prices will fall from now until the latter half of 2027. We therefore expect economies will slow this year before gradually expanding next year. However, it is likely that uncertainty will remain elevated owing