UBS：中国经济展望-2026年核心主题与潜在意外报告（英文版）

We expect China's GDP growth to slow modestly to 4.5% in 2026. We expect exports to decelerate in 2026, leading to a much narrower growth contribution. Overall domesticactivities are likely to stay largely resilient, with property downturn to continue albeitwith smaller contractions, consumption to maintain a modest but softer pace,infrastructure and manufacturing investment to recover modestly from the sharp YoYdecline in H22025. We expect CPl inflation to increase to 0.4%, PPI to narrow