世界银行：2026年世界大宗商品市场展望报告（4月刊）（英文版）

The outbreak of war in the Middle East represents a historic shock to commodity markets, resulting in March in the largest oil supply loss on record. Assuming the most acute phase of commodity trade disruptions ends in May, with shipping volumes transiting through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returning to near prewar levels by October, average commodity prices are projected to rise by 16 percent this year—the first annual increase since 2022. This would leave prices about 25 percent hig