ADB亚洲开发银行：2025年如何评估危机风险：亚洲开发银行开发新的预警系统报告（英文版）

Recent economic and financial crises are a reminder that such events can have devastating impact on long-term growth and prosperity. Interest in identifying vulnerabilities and predicting financial stress has therefore surged. Sufficiently early detection of the buildup of stress gives mitigating measures a greater chance of dampening output losses or avoiding them altogether. Past approaches to predicting crises are challenged by overly adapting models to past observations (model overfitting