国际货币基金组织：2024新兴市场的货币政策传导：谚语般的担忧，新的证据报告（英文版）

Doubts persist about the effectiveness of monetary transmission in emerging markets, but the empirical evidence is scarce due to challenges in identifying monetary policy shocks. In this paper, we construct new monetary policy shocks using novel analysts’ forecasts of policy rate decisions. Crucial for identification, analysts can update forecasts up to the policy meeting, allowing them to incorporate any relevant data release. Using these shocks, we show that monetary transmission in emergin