招银国际：宏桥控股（002379）-Highearningssensitivitytoaluminiumprice,highdividendpayout;initiatewithBUY

宏桥控股(002379) Ourlatestindustryanalysissuggeststhattheglobalaluminiumsupplydeficitwillwidenin2026Eandwillremaininplacein2027E(seeoursectornotepublishedtoday).WebelieveHongqiaoHoldings,whichcarriesthemajorityofoperatingassetsofChinaHongqiao(1378HK,BUY),willbenefitfromtheelevatedaluminiumprice.WelikeHongqiaoHoldings’highearningssensitivity(~3.3%for1%changeinaluminiumprice)andhighpotentialdividendpayoutratio(75%inourmodelassumption).InitiatewithBUYwithTPofRMB29,basedon13.2x2026EP/E,equivalentto20%pr