伯恩斯坦：2026年全球金属与矿业：霍尔木兹冲突下铝市场虽受冲击但未崩溃（英文版）

7% of demand is sourced from the Middle East and (a) is strongly export-oriented and (b) relies heavily on the Strait of Hormuz to reach markets. Those tons cannot currently reach market amidst two nation’s blockades. 3% of global demand has been damaged by military strikes. Restart and rebuild times for smelters are measured in months, quarters and years. We provide full details on damages below. As a result, aluminum prices have moved to the second highest levels ever witnessed (closing in