安联：2026年信用风险转移而非消除：牛顿摆式风险在BBB级、高收益和私募信贷间的传递研究报告（英文版）

US credit looks calm on the surface – spreads tight, headline growth cheerful – but the risk has simply migrated . Investment grade (IG), high yield (HY) and private credit are one continuous risk -transfer chain and at every link price has decoupled from fundamentals through a different mechanism: spread compression in IG, weakest links bypassing public HY and net asset value ( NAV ) smoothing in private credit. • Softened IG fundamentals and fallen -angel risk expos e up to 1/3 of spread .