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8金币欧洲央行：冲击在各部门的传播和部门价格的动态（英文版）.PDF

This paper studies the dynamics of U.S. sectoral producer prices in a large Bayesian Vector Auto Regression (BVAR) model where the Input-Output (IO) matrix is used to structure their long-run relationships. The model provides evidence of a sectora...

内容提供方：外唐用户 | 2026-08-11 发布 | 3.94MB | 43 页
8金币向量自回归中的阈值内生性：重新评估货币状态依赖性（英文版）.PDF

This article proposes a novel framework that integrates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model to forecast macro-financial variables and examine asymmetries in the transmissio...

内容提供方：外唐用户 | 2026-08-11 发布 | 1.85MB | 52 页
10金币欧洲央行：政府财政统计指南（英文版）.PDF

This chapter explains the changes made to the Guide compared to the version of January 2019, how government finance statistics (GFS) are used at the European Central Bank (ECB) and also gives a brief overview of the methodological framework for...

内容提供方：外唐用户 | 2026-08-11 发布 | 883.07KB | 88 页
10金币欧洲央行：主观收入与就业动态（英文版）.PDF

We develop a new approach to estimating earnings, job, and employment dy-namics using subjective expectations data from the NY Fed Survey of ConsumerExpectations. These data provide beliefs about future earnings offers and accep-tance probabilitie...

内容提供方：外唐用户 | 2026-08-11 发布 | 1.52MB | 74 页
10金币国际货币基金组织：大宗商品繁荣、生产率与资源错配-来自智利行政数据的证据（英文版）.PDF

We study how commodity booms affect productivity using administrative microdata from Chile combining firm exports by product and destination,employer-employee records,and firm-to-firm production networks.Exploiting differential Chinese demand acro...

内容提供方：外唐用户 | 2026-08-11 发布 | 1.53MB | 74 页
10金币国际货币基金组织：货币市场的金融冲击：来自UIP溢价的证据（英文版）.PDF

This paper proposes a sign-narrative VAR approach to identifying financial shocks in currency markets. The approach imposes minimal sign restrictions shared across canonical exchange rate models, leveraging their key insights while remaining robus...

内容提供方：外唐用户 | 2026-08-11 发布 | 4.39MB | 63 页
10金币国际货币基金组织：即将到来的大萧条？新指标与百年证据（英文版）.PDF

Governments have historically used financial repression to reduce debt and fiscal pressures, yet few systematic measures of repression exist. To fill this gap, we introduce two quantity-based repression indicators grounded in a structural portfoli...

内容提供方：外唐用户 | 2026-08-11 发布 | 1.63MB | 71 页
8金币国际货币基金组织：自上而下的趋同：当全球追赶反映的是落后（英文版）.PDF

Convergence is usually interpreted as evidence of catch-up: poorer economies grow faster because they are moving toward richer ones. This paper argues that the same empirical pattern can arise from a different source. If country-specific long-run ...

内容提供方：外唐用户 | 2026-08-11 发布 | 1.46MB | 52 页
15金币王虹：凸集的并集体积估计，以及三维中Kakeya集合猜想（英文版）.PDF

We study sets of δ tubes in R3 , with the property that not too many tubes can be contained inside a common convex set V. We show that the union of tubes from such a set must have almost maximal volume. As a consequence, we prove that every Kakey...

内容提供方：外唐用户 | 2026-08-10 发布 | 3.83MB | 127 页
5金币上海国际问题研究院：全球治理倡议视域下中国海洋治理自主知识体系的构建与实践.PDF

全球海洋治理思想体系在历史演进中形成了西方传统海洋思想、全球南方治理诉求与中国海洋治理理念三大谱系。当前，以《联合国海洋法公约》为核心的治理体系面临理念缺陷、体系缺陷、治理困境与实践困境等多重结构性难题，难以适配海洋治理现代化的现实需求。文章以全球治理倡议为理论基础，界定中国海洋治理自主知识体系的含义与价值，提出以主权平等、国际法治、多边主义、以人为本和行动导向为五大核心，为自主知识体系提供了系统的法理指引与价值支撑；构建以共商共建共享为价值核心，以主权平等、公平正义、人海和谐、...

内容提供方：外唐用户 | 2026-08-07 发布 | 1.06MB | 15 页