BERNSTEIN：2026年中国能源行业：“十五五”规划及其影响报告（英文版）

China’s total energy consumption is expected to rise by 14% by 2030 (2.6% CAGR) from the 2025 baseline, although we suspect this understates growth. The 15th Five Year Plan (FYP) calls for energy consumption per unit of GDP to fall by 10% by 2030 from 2025 baseline —a slower rate of improvement compared with the 13.5% reduction targeted under the 14th FYP. When combined with 4.75% GDP growth, China’s total primary energy demand should rise 14% to 6.95Bn TCE. This implies 2.6% CAGR growth in p